Is federalism 'treaty' good or bad for .So?

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

You don’t have to fight a state, just a leader. We’ve seen it in Farmaajo’s term. FGS’s ability to do that will only strengthen. Farmaajo captured Baydhabo, Dhusamareb, Jowhar on election day if you remember. He tried Kismayo with ENDF but failed. But in future when FGS has full air superiority a few bombings will allow for that easily.

Ethiopia is not fighting a leader but a whole ethnicity. Big difference. Somalis are notoriously easy to use against each other. Currently for example HSM can fund Ciise Maxmuud to dislodge Deni (which he’s rumoured to already have done through AaranJaan).

Now imagine a future where SNA is in PL. Funded by FGS. With air superiority over a few PL police.

You seem drunken on 'air superiority' nonsense; what have they been feeding you? Glue?

 

[bidenkulaha]

You seem drunken on 'air superiority' nonsense; what have they been feeding you? Glue?

Ukraine war

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Ukraine war

Let us come back to planet earth, and deal in .So.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Ukraine war

Let me ask you: what is your favoured model system of government?

 

[bidenkulaha]

We NEVER want that in a million years.

Could you reflect on the question re: what is the recourse for you beloved State (by this, I mean any State)?

I don’t particularly think we can do anything about a bad leader who takes all power.

Farmaajo proved how strong the state can be, he was only limited by it yet not having control over security. 5-10 years from now we’ll be unrecognisable, hopefully we elect Presidents who’s first course of action isn’t war when it comes to disagreement

 

[Removed]

The problem you all have is not viewing things into the distance.

Soldiers are loyal to their checks. In future when FGS has strong financial power (monetary and fiscal) it’ll be controlling SNA across Somalia.

Once that happens whether they were trained in Kismayo or Jowhar won’t make a blind bit of difference. Allowing this integration (which is what the South-Central states have signed) is a death warrant for their independence.

We’re heading to a future where the SNA is no longer just paid 100-200 a month and is independent from a command structure that goes all the way up to the FGS President.

And you’re viewing this in clan terms, while I’ve avoided that in this thread because I don’t believe the SNA will for much longer avoid reforms where it’ll be forced to diversify all ranks and send troops to regions they aren’t from to improve obedience.

Your jumping past why Xamar would have disproportionately more wealth to other states then what currently exists.

You havent explained how Xamar will actually take control of Kismayo or Bosasso port other then it potentially being codified(Ethiopia and Sudans civil wars for control can show us why that means so little)

A Madoobe found himself in a bit of wicket situation, and chose do dance with the devil. For how long, I know not.

When your a younger state missing a gobol/capital you cant afford to operate as a “pariah” state.

Projects not going through as they should and constant political warfare with an internal region means we cant enter political warfare at the drop of a hat like PL.

When I weigh between the effects of a political war and an amendment that cant be put into action but is problematic in principle I know which one is more damaging right now.

 

[Abaq]

There are many case studies like this particularly in JL. RKB becoming SNA and Danab graduate troops arriving in Kismayo under Farmajo are the easiest to think of. If Xamar could codify a changing of guard in other regions we never would have been in war to begin with.

Its more likely KG and Hawiye states maintain their dependence, JL switches shirts, and SL/PL rejects the entire system outright as they are the most established states.

This all mirrors the relationship of the states to existing federal bodies. The idea of Galmudug raised troops now controlling Bosaso/Kismayo ports although a wonderful fantasy is obviously not going to happen because of a law being passed.

This fits perfectly in Madoobes track record. The philosophy and operation of JL and PL differs but they aim in the same direction more so from function then clan allegiance.

If KG had a port it would act like a mirror to Darood states due to inherent motives.

Bingo. Although legally risky, Madobe’s plan is to sign whatever he has to now to get what he needs but to turn his back thereafter. With Jubaland under his military and financial control, there is little the FGS can do to force him. Even if the FGS had drones, with Kenya viewing Jubaland as its buffer state due to Kenyan Ogaden pressure, it is unlikely to sit back and watch it get bombed. Effectively, Madobe will sign whatever law he wants to achieve his aims and will walk away without any consequences

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

I don’t particularly think we can do anything about a bad leader who takes all power.

Farmaajo proved how strong the state can be, he was only limited by it yet not having control over security. 5-10 years from now we’ll be unrecognisable, hopefully we elect Presidents who’s first course of action isn’t war when it comes to disagreement

Instead of living in state of 'hopefully', why not think about a State where you are protected, and potential abuse of power is minimised?

 

[GaradShabeel]

You don’t have to fight a state, just a leader. We’ve seen it in Farmaajo’s term. FGS’s ability to do that will only strengthen. Farmaajo captured Baydhabo, Dhusamareb, Jowhar on election day if you remember. He tried Kismayo with ENDF but failed. But in future when FGS has full air superiority a few bombings will allow for that easily.

Ethiopia is not fighting a leader but a whole ethnicity. Big difference. Somalis are notoriously easy to use against each other. Currently for example HSM can fund Ciise Maxmuud to dislodge Deni (which he’s rumoured to already have done through AaranJaan).

Now imagine a future where SNA is in PL. Funded by FGS. With air superiority over a few PL police.

You gave bad examples to prove your point. No wonder Farmaajo succeeded when those FMS were just FMS on paper. Most of their lands were under AS, couldn't control their borders, reliant on FGS, barely any separate forces worthy of their name.

Again, the moment FGS bombs anywhere, that's when the locals will unite and reject FGS in its entirety. We've seen the last 30-40 years. Even if SNA has the upper-hand, opposition will continue. As I said before, several FMS are more likely to reject FGS at the same time. What will FGS/SNA do? Attack everyone? lol

Doing isku dir will not be as effective in the more established FMS. There's a reason why AJ haven't toppled Deni. Likewise, no opposition in SL will be able to overthrow the gov't in Hargaysa.

With all due respect, your have really bad takes which only espouses wishful thinking

 

[bidenkulaha]

Bad examples to prove your point. No wonder Farmaajo succeeded when those FMS were just FMS on paper. Most of their lands were under AS, can't control their borders, reliant on FGS, barely any forces worthy of their name.

Again, the moment FGS bombs anywhere, that's when the locals will unite and reject FGS in its entirety. We've seen the last 30-40 years. Even if SNA has the upper-hand, opposition will continue. As I said before, several FMS are more likely to reject FGS. What will FGS/SNA do? Attack everyone? Mark my word, that will be the end of Somalia as we know it.

Doing isku dir will not work as good in the more established FMS. There's a reason why AJ haven't toppled Deni. Likewise, no opposition in SL will be able to do it to the gov't in Hargaysa.

With all due respect, your have really bad takes which only espouses wishful thinking

AJ achieved their aim which is to stop Garowe election, which has now ended Deni’s political hopes.

And the thread of bombing is enough to change the stakes. FMS leaders will be more compliant even if the FGS doesn’t end up using it.

And Farmaajo killed a lot of people in Baydhabo and Dhusamareb for his elections. There was a major backlash but they were put down with gunfire.

You underestimate how popular Roobow was in Baydhabo and ASWJ in Dhusamareb. Ironically I doubt we see other leaders with that much support in their capital. If Farmaajo got away with that then I doubt there’ll be much future problem of imposing leaders on states

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Projects not going through as they should and constantpolitical warfare with an internal region means we cant enter political warfare at the drop of a hat like PL.

When I weigh between the effects of a political war and an amendment that cant be put into action but is problematic in principle I know which one is more damaging right now.

Quite the pacifist, are not you? So, you do not live by the old axiom: 'I would rather live like a lion for a day than live 100 years like a mouse'? Shrewd political leaders can suss out the unfolding conditions, long term or otherwise, and manoeuvre through the maze sans compromising own principles, or auctioning the family heirlooms. I do consider A Madoobe a survivalist, smart leader, but lacks shrew advisors.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Your jumping past why Xamar would have disproportionately more wealth to other states then what currently exists.

You havent explained how Xamar will actually take control of Kismayo or Bosasso port other then it potentially being codified(Ethiopia and Sudans civil wars for control can show us why that means so little)

When your a younger state missing a gobol/capital you cant afford to operate as a “pariah” state.

Projects not going through as they should and constant political warfare with an internal region means we cant enter political warfare at the drop of a hat like PL.

When I weigh between the effects of a political war and an amendment that cant be put into action but is problematic in principle I know which one is more damaging right now.

A simple signature tends to be more important than anything else. Once HSM got Madoobe to sign on, he achieved debt relief despite his political isolation of PL. Madoobe had a lot of leverage as the only other Darood leader which he used for just Gedo which can be reversed whenever HSM feels like, to avoid that Madoobe will have to continue working with HSM. IC likely would’ve blocked debt relief if JL pulled out.

Allowing FGS to have access to new loans and it deciding how to spend it/split it is another nail in the coffin of our current con-federation.

Xamar is the capital, it’s like asking why Nairobi, Addis Ababa raises disproportionately more money. Xamar has more population than other states which makes it even worse.

Currently Xamar which is rebuilding still, raises $380 million. 5 times as much as relatively stable PL over the past two decades. That disparity will only widen.

 

[Abaq]

Quite the pacifist, are not you? So, you do not live by the old axiom: 'I would rather live like a lion for a day than live 100 years like a mouse'? Shrewd political leaders can suss out the unfolding conditions, long term or otherwise, and manoeuvre through the maze sans compromising own principles, or auctioning the family heirlooms. I do consider A Madoobe a survivalist, smart leader, but lacks shrew advisors.

Madobe is a very shrewd politician. His only problem is that he has exiled all his talented advisors. Jubaland is safe under his reign, the only problem is what happens after he leaves as no competent successor has been prepared nor strong institutions in place. Madobe knows he can’t keep running the show for ever but the problem is with a region in open revolt, another completely cut off by terrorists, and a hostile FGS, his hands were really tied. In other words, Madoobe desperately needs some peace without FGS interfering to prepare Jubaland for his eventual departure. With Gedo now back under his control and the looming operation liberation of the Middle Jubba, he can start focusing on appointing a successor

 

[GaradShabeel]

Arms embargo lifting is inevitable, and likely soon. On the other point it’s already happened with NCC.

We’re talking about the system of government we will be moving to in the long term. In my opinion it’s unavoidable we’ll be moving to a strong FGS

How? Even when the constitution is finished, you need to ally with people who share your vision in 1p1v through political parties. I can't see other than HAGs voting for such a system and HAG 'dominance' will only last as long as Isaaq/northern Dirs are selected in Xamar despite 1p1v.

 

[bidenkulaha]

How? Even when the constitution is finished, you need to ally with people who share your vision in a future 1p1v through political parties. I can't see other than HAGs voting for such a system and HAG 'dominance' will only last as long as Isaaq/northern Dirs are selected in Xamar in 1p1v.

Political parties won’t be campaigning on ‘I will give up power’.

Very few ever manage to deliver even in the West when they do eventually win. Now I can’t imagine a corrupt African avoiding the age old curse of ‘absolute power corrupts absolutely’

 

[GaradShabeel]

Political parties won’t be campaigning on ‘I will give up power’.

Very few ever manage to deliver even in the West when they do eventually win. Now I can’t imagine a corrupt African avoiding the age old curse of ‘absolute power corrupts absolutely’

That's why we need to purge calool u shaqeystayaal, corrupt and power hungry people. Nacalaa if Somalia were to turn authoritarian ever again

 

[bidenkulaha]

That's why we need to purge calool u shaqeystayaal, corrupt and power hungry people. Nacalaa if Somalia were to turn authoritarian ever again

We already have authoritarianism but just at state level tbf. The states are actually mini-dictatorships.

I agree with a lot of what Faroole said

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

Madobe is a very shrewd politician. His only problem is that he has exiled all his talented advisors. Jubaland is safe under his reign, the only problem is what happens after he leaves as no competent successor has been prepared nor strong institutions in place. Madobe knows he can’t keep running the show for ever but the problem is with a region in open revolt, another completely cut off by terrorists, and a hostile FGS, his hands were really tied. In other words, Madoobe desperately needs some peace without FGS interfering to prepare Jubaland for his eventual departure. With Gedo now back under his control and the looming operation liberation of the Middle Jubba, he can start focusing on appointing a successor

I met him twice, and agree he is smart, but shrewd (with clear and sound judgement of a situation to take the hard, right path, and not the most expedient, if quick fix), I am hesitant, and would agree no matter how good a leader, lack of good advisors is a grave handicap.

A successor is a conversation for another day!

 

[Removed]

Quite the pacifist, are not you? So, you do not live by the old axiom: 'I would rather live like a lion for a day than live 100 years like a mouse'? Shrewd political leaders can suss out the unfolding conditions, long term or otherwise, and manoeuvre through the maze sans compromising own principles, or auctioning the family heirlooms. I do consider A Madoobe a survivalist, smart leader, but lacks shrew advisors.

Madobe is a very shrewd politician. His only problem is that he has exiled all his talented advisors. Jubaland is safe under his reign, the only problem is what happens after he leaves as no competent successor has been prepared nor strong institutions in place. Madobe knows he can’t keep running the show for ever but the problem is with a region in open revolt, another completely cut off by terrorists, and a hostile FGS, his hands were really tied. In other words, Madoobe desperately needs some peace without FGS interfering to prepare Jubaland for his eventual departure. With Gedo now back under his control and the looming operation liberation of the Middle Jubba, he can start focusing on appointing a successor

Its called choosing your enemies and your battlefield. With what Madoobe works with he and his merry band are more shrewd then any politician post 91’ barring AY.

I dont want my President playing lion over a smaller issue when I dont have my capital. The infrastructure projects are a plus and the PM is decoration.

A simple signature tends to be more important than anything else. Once HSM got Madoobe to sign on, he achieved debt relief despite his political isolation of PL. Madoobe had a lot of leverage as the only other Darood leader which he used for just Gedo which can be reversed whenever HSM feels like. IC likely would’ve blocked debt relief if JL pulled out.

Allowing FGS to have access to new loans and it deciding how to spend it/split it is another nail in the coffin of our current con-federation.

Xamar is the capital, it’s like asking why Nairobi, Addis Ababa raises disproportionately more money. Xamar has more population than other states which makes it even worse.

Currently Xamar which is rebuilding still, raises $380 million. 5 times as much as relatively stable PL over the past two decades. That disparity will only widen.

Debt relief has been in the works for years as a bipartisan issue and PL only dragged its feet for the last saga yet its the bed-rock for your entire political vision for dominance and defines your current political paradigm.

Notice your theory repositioned from States losing physical control through legislation to states being bought out in the future thanks to Xamars gdp growth then finally debt relief will give us what we need in loans to takeover Darood states.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Its called choosing your enemies and your battlefield. With what Madoobe works with he and his merry band are more shrewd then any politician post 91’ barring AY.

I dont want my President playing lion over a smaller issue when I dont have my capital. The infrastructure projects are a plus and the PM is decoration.

Debt relief has been in the works for years as a bipartisan issue and PL only dragged its feet for the last saga yet its the bed-rock for your entire political vision for dominance and defines your current political paradigm.

Notice your theory repositioned from States losing physical control through legislation to states being bought out in the future thanks to Xamars gdp growth then finally debt relief will give us what we need in loans to takeover Darood states.

It’s a combination. If you look at my comments in the beginning of the thread and the OP’s listing of the powers granted to the FGS by the new constitution

FGS power over the FMS is both economic and military. Both suffice on their own, both compliment each other.