Musa gives Ethiopia a port and a military base on the Gulf of Aden. It's over

[Thegoodshepherd]

When Puntland signs a deal with Ethiopia after they fell out with the central government everybody was silent. When the Ethiopian soldiers occupy whole sections of Somalia and tax the population its all silence. But when Somaliland makes a deal with Ethiopia, all of a sudden the Somalinimo merchants come out in full swing? Spare us the hypocrisy. Not interested. I for one am in full support of making any deal with Ethiopia.

Puntland can sign any deal with Ethiopia because we don’t question the territorial integrity of Somalia. Puntland will never offer to lease to Ethiopia a naval base. Ethiopian soldiers stationed in Somalia will leave the day the FGS tells them to leave, they are not a threat to the territorial integrity of Somalia.

What the iidoor state is proposing is a permanent lease (a la Guantanamo) of 400 sq km of coastal land to Ethiopia for a military base. This is an existential threat to the Somali state. The main geostrategic advantage Somalia has had against Ethiopia is that it was unable to blockade our ports. We could be at war with Ethiopia and carry on trade and import weapons and ammunition. If Ethiopia has a navy, Somalia will be totally vulnerable to Ethiopian coercion.

 

[Warzio7]

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Whats your clan? Me I'm Isaaq Isse Muse?

 

[Warzio7]

Puntland can sign any deal with Ethiopia because we don’t question the territorial integrity of Somalia. Puntland will never offer to lease to Ethiopia a naval base. Ethiopian soldiers stationed in Somalia will leave the day the FGS tells them to leave, they are not a threat to the territorial integrity of Somalia.

What the iidoor state is proposing is a permanent lease (a la Guantanamo) of 400 sq km of coastal land to Ethiopia for a military base. This is an existential threat to the Somali state. The main geostrategic advantage Somalia has had against Ethiopia is that it was unable to blockade our ports. We could be at war with Ethiopia and carry on trade and import weapons and ammunition. If Ethiopia has a navy, Somalia will be totally vulnerable to Ethiopian coercion.

Puntland has one foot in and one foot out when it comes to Somalia. They will be watching closely what develops in regards to Somaliland recognition and will most likely declare full independence if Somaliland is successful. mark my words. The fact that you find it ok for puntland to deal with Ethiopia with the current MOU situation says everything.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Puntland can sign any deal with Ethiopia because we don’t question the territorial integrity of Somalia. Puntland will never offer to lease to Ethiopia a naval base. Ethiopian soldiers stationed in Somalia will leave the day the FGS tells them to leave, they are not a threat to the territorial integrity of Somalia.

What the iidoor state is proposing is a permanent lease (a la Guantanamo) of 400 sq km of coastal land to Ethiopia for a military base. This is an existential threat to the Somali state. The main geostrategic advantage Somalia has had against Ethiopia is that it was unable to blockade our ports. We could be at war with Ethiopia and carry on trade and import weapons and ammunition. If Ethiopia has a navy, Somalia will be totally vulnerable to Ethiopian coercion.

This paranoia is only ever excercised when it comes to Somaliland.
Ethiopia is already present in the South. If they are hell bent on invading, how can the FGS can tell them to leave? They are already there and have made friends with the locals.

Is the Ethiopia in the south the same one making a base in Somaliland? Is it two different Ethiopias with two different plans?

---
Naval blockades aren't the end of the world. Ethiopia was blocked off during Tigray war and Ogaden war, air resupply exists. Besides which world is going to let Ethiopia get away with a naval blockade?

Ethiopian elites in Addis are vulnerable, they are just looking to diversify their ports and protect their imports and exports, their economy is going to be increasingly reliant on exports. This idea that they are gearing up for a full scale annexation of Somalia is beyond a joke.

This is just fearmongering.

 

[AP123]

This paranoia is only ever excercised when it comes to Somaliland.
Ethiopia is already present in the South. If they are hell bent on invading, how can the FGS can tell them to leave? They are already there and have made friends with the locals.

Is the Ethiopia in the south the same one making a base in Somaliland? Is it two different Ethiopias with two different plans?

---
Naval blockades aren't the end of the world. Ethiopia was blocked off during Tigray war and Ogaden war, air resupply exists. Besides which world is going to let Ethiopia get away with a naval blockade?

Ethiopian elites in Addis are vulnerable, they are just looking to diversify their ports and protect their imports and exports, their economy is going to be increasingly reliant on exports. This idea that they are gearing up for a full scale annexation of Somalia is beyond a joke.

This is just fearmongering.

I noticed all the arguments are based around this exact thing, Ethiopian take over of somali territory. Like you said, they just want to do business

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

I noticed all the arguments are based around this exact thing, Ethiopian take over of somali territory. Like you said, they just want to do business

If it was business only, they can do the port stuff without a military base and land lease.

It is obviously not 'business' only which is why many people of all qabiils oppose the deal.

 

[AP123]

If it was business only, they can do the port stuff without a military base and land lease.

It is obviously not 'business' only which is why many people of all qabiils oppose the deal.

you got a point, tbf I don't know why they want a naval base so badly.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

you got a point, tbf I don't know why they want a naval base so badly.

See I have a good back and forth you are able to at least listen to what is said.

This walaal is the golden question and why many people including me see this whole deal as dangerous. Look into this matter and Ethiopia's future plans and ambitions and you will see a future that is dangerous for Somaliland's people.

I have also argued before that Ethiopia will not actually recognise Somaliland- this is the main carrot being used to deceive the people into otherwise tolerating a dodgy deal. Ethiopia has only committed to 'seriously consider recognition' there is no wording in the document that guarantees Ethiopian recognition.

Imagine a scenario 5 years from now that Somaliland is not a recognised country AND there is a permanent Ethiopian military base AND in the absolute worst case scenario the promised income and shares from companies they control proves to be BS but because they have a military presence you are unable to do anything at all.

Ethiopia is not in the position to recognise Somaliland or be the first one to do so for the simple reason that they are at war with themselves and have many active secessionist movements.

 

[Hilmaam]

Ethiopia is playing master puppeteer with Somalia. If fgs displeases them they will use a FMS state. If FMS displeases them they will play clans against each other in that state.

Somaliland will get same treatment once they get foot in door

 

[AP123]

See I have a good back and forth you are able to at least listen to what is said.

This walaal is the golden question and why many people including me see this whole deal as dangerous. Look into this matter and Ethiopia's future plans and ambitions and you will see a future that is dangerous for Somaliland's people.

I have also argued before that Ethiopia will not actually recognise Somaliland- this is the main carrot being used to deceive the people into otherwise tolerating a dodgy deal. Ethiopia has only committed to 'seriously consider recognition' there is no wording in the document that guarantees Ethiopian recognition.

Imagine a scenario 5 years from now that Somaliland is not a recognised country AND there is a permanent Ethiopian military base AND in the absolute worst case scenario the promised income and shares from companies they control proves to be BS but because they have a military presence you are unable to do anything at all.

Ethiopia is not in the position to recognise Somaliland or be the first one to do so for the simple reason that they are at war with themselves and have many active secessionist movements.

This is what I got

Why landlocked Ethiopia wants to launch a navy

Ethiopia has signed deals with several neighbouring countries for access to their ports.

www.bbc.com

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Ethiopia is playing master puppeteer with Somalia. If fgs displeases them they will use a FMS state. If FMS displeases them they will play clans against each other in that state.

Somaliland will get same treatment once they get foot in door

Whats the difference with the FGS? SL doesn't work with them they work with clans.

Ethiopia at least has a business interest, FGS might snatch all revenues from the area, they are more dangerous.

The MoU recognizes Somaliland in it's borders, what does the FGS to? Try to talk to Awdal representatives, Khatumo representatives. FGS is trying to actively dismantle SL while Ethiopia recongizes it. Who is the enemy again?

 

[Hilmaam]

Whats the difference with the FGS? SL doesn't work with them they work with clans.

Ethiopia at least has a business interest, FGS might snatch all revenues from the area, they are more dangerous.

The MoU recognizes Somaliland in it's borders, what does the FGS to? Try to talk to Awdal representatives, Khatumo representatives. FGS is trying to actively dismantle SL while Ethiopia recongizes it. Who is the enemy again?

True FGS really doesn’t bring anything to table for most of country it’s even obstacles sometimes to aid. Can change though one day if we get lucky with oil or something

 

[AP123]

See I have a good back and forth you are able to at least listen to what is said.

This walaal is the golden question and why many people including me see this whole deal as dangerous. Look into this matter and Ethiopia's future plans and ambitions and you will see a future that is dangerous for Somaliland's people.

I have also argued before that Ethiopia will not actually recognise Somaliland- this is the main carrot being used to deceive the people into otherwise tolerating a dodgy deal. Ethiopia has only committed to 'seriously consider recognition' there is no wording in the document that guarantees Ethiopian recognition.

Imagine a scenario 5 years from now that Somaliland is not a recognised country AND there is a permanent Ethiopian military base AND in the absolute worst case scenario the promised income and shares from companies they control proves to be BS but because they have a military presence you are unable to do anything at all.

Ethiopia is not in the position to recognise Somaliland or be the first one to do so for the simple reason that they are at war with themselves and have many active secessionist movements.

We're going into this as a deal and your saying we're not gonna get anything in return. The whole deal is based around recognition for SL as far as I know. Their not just going to come in and xoog us for next to nothing we'll just cancel the deal if that's the case what will they do then come in by force? What's stopping them from doing that now. There's laws to follow you can't just aquire land by force sxb.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

We're going into this as a deal and your saying we're not gonna get anything in return. The whole deal is based around recognition for SL as far as I know. Their not just going to come in and xoog us for next to nothing we'll just cancel the deal if that's the case what will they do then come in by force? What's stopping them from doing that now. There's laws to follow you can't just xoog land sxb.

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[AP123]

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I see..I was going with international law on this regarding the land take over but if your saying Ethiopia has something else in store then let's just wait and see.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

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If Ethiopia has designs on the ocean and are willing to annex territory to achieve it then the MoU doesn't really change anything.
Russia didn't sign an MoU with Ukraine they just went in there. The MoU and Somaliland recognition is actully less troublesome than war. I think they thought about war with Eritrea first because that's their natural base and they can launch an offensive from Tigray area. They decided in the end that the diplomatic route with Somaliland was the less costly option.

If Somaliland pulls of out the deal they will revoke their recognition and move their business somewhere else. It's a very good deal for both groups and both groups have a good reason to hold up their end of the bargain. This is why Ethiopia feels comfortable with SL rather than Djibouti.

Ethiopia would struggle to get a navy with any other country because they wouldn't have any leverage. Their leverage is the recongition and the business through Berbera and using thier influence to get other countries to recognize SL. SL would never back out of the deal and that way Ethiopia would get a reliable sea access. Win - win.

 

[Aurelian]

Was the Ictiraaf in June or July?

 

[Warzio7]

See I have a good back and forth you are able to at least listen to what is said.

This walaal is the golden question and why many people including me see this whole deal as dangerous. Look into this matter and Ethiopia's future plans and ambitions and you will see a future that is dangerous for Somaliland's people.

I have also argued before that Ethiopia will not actually recognise Somaliland- this is the main carrot being used to deceive the people into otherwise tolerating a dodgy deal. Ethiopia has only committed to 'seriously consider recognition' there is no wording in the document that guarantees Ethiopian recognition.

Imagine a scenario 5 years from now that Somaliland is not a recognised country AND there is a permanent Ethiopian military base AND in the absolute worst case scenario the promised income and shares from companies they control proves to be BS but because they have a military presence you are unable to do anything at all.

Ethiopia is not in the position to recognise Somaliland or be the first one to do so for the simple reason that they are at war with themselves and have many active secessionist movements.

Would you be for the FGS recognizing Somaliland within its 1960 borders if that’s the only way to prevent Ethiopia getting sea access?

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Would you be for the FGS recognizing Somaliland within its 1960 borders if that’s the only way to prevent Ethiopia getting sea access?

Somaliland keeps trying to deal with them but it's like asking a thief for your stuff back. They'll just pretend they don't know what you are talking about. They are negotiating with SL to see if they can pull another scam, some deal they can pull out of later.

They played the victim when Muse tricked them in Djibouti. They were just annoyed that someone beat them at their own game.

 

[Warzio7]

Somaliland keeps trying to deal with them but it's like asking a thief for your stuff back. They'll just pretend they don't know what you are talking about. They are negotiating with SL to see if they can pull another scam, some deal they can pull out of later.

They played the victim when Muse tricked them in Djibouti. They were just annoyed that someone beat them at their own game.

They believe it's their right to rule over us. They don't see us as equals even in their 3 decade failed/fragile position. 100% they would renege on any deal. Muse and all Somalilanders know this. The MOU just angers them only because, their original plan of dismantling Somaliland peacefully, militarily, or via creating internal clan conflict has failed. Them being concerned about Ethiopia taking over Somali territory is just a smoke screen. If they had to choose between recognizing Somaliland within its 1960 borders or Ethiopia taking all Somali territory entirely, they'd choose the later.