Musa gives Ethiopia a port and a military base on the Gulf of Aden. It's over

[Periplus]

If Ethiopia gaining a permanent foothold on the coast is such a bad outcome for Somalia, why not choose the lesser of two evils and recognise Somaliland?

Why should Somalia recognise Somaliland if no country wants to? 33 years and no nation on earth recognised Somaliland while Somalia remained lawless. Ethiopia has promised to consider recognition in exchange for basically annexing prime sea access.

If it genuinely came between the two, Somaliland will get recognised ASAP but that isn't the issue.

Somaliland is one half of the two states that joined to form the Somali republic, Puntland is a region within Somalia.

Puntland is also the successor of a pre-colonial state, namely the Majeerteen sultanate, which had international recognition, clearly demarcated borders, a capital and a military.

What criteria does the 4-day state in Somaliland meet that the Majeerteen sultanate did not?

 

[Three Moons]

Yo @Bazed both sides are still yapping.

 

[Rabiic]

Why would Somalia allow itself to lose 27% of its territory? What guarantee is there that Somaliland wouldn't continue working with Ethiopia anyways since they aren't suddenly going to be friends with Somalia just because they get recognized? Look at Djibouti, do they care for Somalia? No. Somaliland will be yet another country that will benefit off of Somalia's instability so recognizing them is akin to shooting yourself in the foot with no way to reverse it.

Ethiopia won't be getting a naval base, that much is clear. No only will it be costly, but dissent in Awdal might turn into full blown conflict due to strongly opposing Ethiopian presence and then it will be delayed even further. More importantly, Somalia has recently given Turkey carte blanche to operate in their seas and Turkish vessels will soon be near Somaliland and neither they or Ethiopia can do a thing to stop it because Somaliland doesn't have its own EEZ. The MOU is a foolhardy plan that was never going to be successful. It was always just a distraction for Abiy to turn attention away from internal problems.

"Allow itself to lose 27% of its territory".

What gives Somalia power to consider Somaliland "its territory" when Somaliland is an equal half of the two states that joined together to form the union with Mogadishu not having any influence there since 1991?

This situation is one in which Somalia has very little control over what goes on between Somaliland and Ethiopia. If both sides decide tomorrow to finalise the mou Somalia will have no say other than to complain about to anyone who would care to listen.

If Ethiopia having a sea outlet is such a bad outcome for Somalia, then doing the sensible thing and recognising Somaliland would 100% be the way to end the mou in its current form. But your hubris and hate for Somaliland is causing you to not consider the one and only option you actually have to influence the mou.

Everything you said above is conjecture, you ask about guarantees and yet what you do is the only option that guarantees the mou goes through, you just cant see it yet.

The fact that you are confidently bringing up Somalia giving Turkey full effective control over its waters just to spite Somaliland shows you dont fully comprehend the situation. You did not have to make such a terrible deal just to spite Somaliland. If Somalia were to recognise Somaliland the mou would be over because its not needed and you would be able to get a better deal for your sea. Turkey will never choose Somalia against Ethiopia, a major partner of Turkey.

 

[Periplus]

If both sides decide tomorrow to finalise the mou Somalia will have no say other than to complain about to anyone who would care to listen.

If Somalia sells the offshore drilling rights to Somaliland's waters to a US oil company, what will Somaliland do about it except complain?

You see how stupid your logic is.

 

[Rabiic]

Why should Somalia recognise Somaliland if no country wants to? 33 years and no nation on earth recognised Somaliland while Somalia remained lawless. Ethiopia has promised to consider recognition in exchange for basically annexing prime sea access.

If it genuinely came between the two, Somaliland will get recognised ASAP but that isn't the issue.

Somalia recognising Somaliland would only go to acknowledge that Somaliland was an equal state that chose to go into a union with Somalia, its accepting a fact that no one is can dispute and a reality on the ground since 1991. Somalia choosing to not accept reality brings about extreme moves like the Somaliland Ethiopia mou or the Somalia Turkey mou selling your entire coastal territory to Turkey.

Puntland is also the successor of a pre-colonial state, namely the Majeerteen sultanate, which had international recognition, clearly demarcated borders, a capital and a military.

What criteria does the 4-day state in Somaliland meet that the Majeerteen sultanate did not?

Puntland is not a successor to any state that received formal recognition like Somaliland, Djibouti or Somalia. Its a regional state within Somalia. If you look at the flags of Somaliland, Djibouti or Somalia, you will see a five pointed star referencing the major Somali states and territories and PL is not one of them.

 

[Homerlilian]

@Periplus is cooking

 

[Rabiic]

If Somalia sells the offshore drilling rights to Somaliland's waters to a US oil company, what will Somaliland do about it except complain?

You see how stupid your logic is.

You can continue to engage in hypotheticals or actually discuss the realities on the ground. Somalia has been crying about the mou between Somaliland and Ethiopia without actually being able to influence it in any way. If both states decide tomorrow to finalise it there is little Somalia can do to stop it, this is because the land is controlled on the ground by Somaliland.

The self inflicted damage to Somalia by selling your own sea for peanuts just to spite Somaliland will have massive implication that far outweigh anything the SL ETH mou can do.

 

[Zak12]

not having any influence there since 1991?

Yes, Somaliland has been defacto independent since 1991 but that is just it, defacto. Its bilateral declaration of independence has not and will not ever be recognized by any state because Somaliland is considered de jure apart of Somalia by the international community. For example, Georgia, the country in the Caucasus has its own break away states in Abkhazia and South Ossetia which is hasn't controlled since the 90s. The international community considers those territory to be rightfully apart of Georgia so being independent means nothing when everyone still considers you to be apart of Somalia.

Somalia will have no say other than to complain about to anyone who would care to listen.

If push comes to shove and if HSM has the balls to do it, Somalia can squeeze Somaliland dry and put heavy economic and political pressure on it. Don't confuse the fact that Mogadishu has no direct control to meaning FGS has absolutely no sway in Somaliland because at the end of the day, an Abgaal nigga in Mogadishu signs the papers to allow foreigners to work with Somaliland.

then doing the sensible thing and recognising Somaliland would 100% be the way to end the mou i

Somalia will not fall for such transparent black mail attempts. Its clear that the Las Anod war has proven so disasterous that Bixi is willing to resort to such measure despite the unpopularity of the deal back home.

You did not have to make such a terrible deal just to spite Somaliland.

Nothing is terrible about the deal. Turkey is willing to built up Somalia's navy and built maritime infastructure to drilla and survey oil all without Somalia paying anything up front. They only want a 30% cut of the revenue generated which is nothing. And contrary to what you believe, the deal has been talked about since 2020 so it was not a reaction to the Ethiopia-SL deal, it was always in the works. Meanwhile Somaliland in exchange for Ethiopia annexing their lands will be getting a 20% cut of an airlines that only makes a billion a year in revenue. Its by an far away the worst deal than what Somalia has.

 

[Zak12]

Also

Turkey will never choose Somalia against Ethiopia, a major partner of Turkey.

Turkey doesn't have to choose. Ethiopia has absolutely no say or influence on the Somalia-Turkey maritime deal. It doesn't impact Ethiopia whatsoever and if they complain? You think Turkey care more about Ethiopia's deal with Somaliland than their own deal with FGS? Pure delusions.

 

[Periplus]

Somalia recognising Somaliland would only go to acknowledge that Somaliland was an equal state that chose to go into a union with Somalia, its accepting a fact that no one is can dispute and a reality on the ground since 1991.

Was an equal state.

The Soviet Union was an equal state to Somalia in 1960, it isn't anymore. We are living in 2024 and Somaliland is considered a "self-declared territory" with no recognition, not even a micro island in the Pacific recognises Somaliland.

Puntland is not a successor to any state that received formal recognition like Somaliland, Djibouti or Somalia. Its a regional state within Somalia. If you look at the flags of Somaliland, Djibouti or Somalia, you will see a five pointed star referencing the major Somali states and territories and PL is not one of them.

So now you are basing the Somali flag as the marker of what is or isn't a legitimate Somali nation-state?

My argument, on the contrary is that the Majeerteen Sultanate was an internationally recognised state with clear borders, a civil service, taxation system and military. They entered international treaties with foreign powers and even had envoys.

So if Somaliland can be a country, why can't Puntland?

The self inflicted damage to Somalia by selling your own sea for peanuts just to spite Somaliland will have massive implication that far outweigh anything the SL ETH mou can do.

This is the kettle calling the pot black.

Aren't Landers rejoicing at Somalis being angry at Somaliland selling their sea for "consideration of recognition".

If that isn't selling for peanuts out of spite, I don't know what is.

 

[Rabiic]

Yes, Somaliland has been defacto independent since 1991 but that is just it, defacto. Its bilateral declaration of independence has not and will not ever be recognized by any state because Somaliland is considered de jure apart of Somalia by the international community. For example, Georgia, the country in the Caucasus has its own break away states in Abkhazia and South Ossetia which is hasn't controlled since the 90s. The international community considers those territory to be rightfully apart of Georgia so being independent means nothing when everyone still considers you to be apart of Somalia.

The is silly. The international community has been dealing with the reality of Somaliland being an independent sovereign state even if it falls short of formally acknowledging its dejure status:

1. Somaliland has formalised its separate aid arrangements.
2. Somaliland pushed through engagements with the likes of DP World against expressed wishes of Somalia. The current president of Somalia is on record that he did not allow the deal, the Somalian parliament issued a motion banning DPW altogether, and yet it fully operates in Somaliland.
3. Yes, no country formally recognised Somaliland's independence since 1991, but as can clearly be seen things are changing much to Somalia's protests. This mou put Somaliland and its recognition back in the headlines and on the table as an imminent reality. The agenda for the incoming Trump admin as suggested by most influential conservative thinktank includes recognising Somaliland as a priority within its Africa agenda.

If push comes to shove and if HSM has the balls to do it, Somalia can squeeze Somaliland dry and put heavy economic and political pressure on it. Don't confuse the fact that Mogadishu has no direct control to meaning FGS has absolutely no sway in Somaliland because at the end of the day, an Abgaal nigga in Mogadishu signs the papers to allow foreigners to work with Somaliland.

 

[Zak12]

1. Somaliland has formalised its separate aid arrangements.

It receives aid directly from Mogadishu lol. Hardly a sign of independence

with the likes of DP World against expressed wishes

Yeah but the DP world deal was much smaller in scale and didn't harm or infringe on Somalia in any way besides FGS not approving of it. The MOU is entirely different beast.

. This mou put Somaliland and its recognition back in the headlines and on the table as an imminent reality

Lol no. All the MOU did was have the international community once again remind SL who they support (FGS). Again, SL has been stuck in a state of limbo for decades and you suddenly think this MOU will change that?

includes recognising Somaliland as a priority within its Africa agenda.

Trump ain't doing that whatsoever, what kind of khat have you been chewing lol. America has spent billions on Somali's security and development and have been getting very close and fostering good relations with FGS. Why on earth would Trump flush all that away just recognize sambusaland? Utterly asinine. Even Russia and China don't entertain recognizing Somaliland because they value their relationship with FGS way more.

You can laugh all you want dude, its the truth. Somalia can internally destroy Somaliland if it so wishes but HSM finds SL useful as a bulwark against Puntland.

 

[Bazed]

Yo @Bazed both sides are still yapping.

When will this madness end

 

[Yami]

Why should Somalia recognise Somaliland if no country wants to? 33 years and no nation on earth recognised Somaliland while Somalia remained lawless. Ethiopia has promised to consider recognition in exchange for basically annexing prime sea access.

If it genuinely came between the two, Somaliland will get recognised ASAP but that isn't the issue.



Puntland is also the successor of a pre-colonial state, namely the Majeerteen sultanate, which had international recognition, clearly demarcated borders, a capital and a military.

What criteria does the 4-day state in Somaliland meet that the Majeerteen sultanate did not?

It's the opposite. Nobody recognized Somaliland because of Somalia being lawless. Notice the pattern from Eritrea to South Sudan in Africa, both was granted independence after a referendum closely monitored by their host nation and with the consent of their host to become independent after the referendum.

2011 South Sudanese independence referendum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

1993 Eritrean independence referendum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Somaliland attempted our own referendum in 2001 after 10 years of waiting on Xamar to stabilize. Unsurprisingly nobody recognized the results due to the Somali government not existing back then.

2001 Somaliland constitutional referendum - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Somaliland was never given the opportunity of Eritrea and South Sudan thanks to the Great Hawiye chimpout of 90's Koonfuur. If Caydiid simply recognized Cali Mahdi as the acting president of Somalia there would've probably been an State of Somaliland by now.

 

[Periplus]

Somaliland attempted our own referendum in 2001 after 10 years of waiting on Xamar to stabilize. Unsurprisingly nobody recognized the results due to the Somali government not existing back then.

And if Somalia stabilises, do you think a referendum would still be recognised?

What is to stop Xamar from passing a law that says any secession referendum must be voted on by the whole country, which is what Spain did to Catalonia?

 

[Yami]

And if Somalia stabilises, do you think a referendum would still be recognised?

What is to stop Xamar from passing a law that says any secession referendum must be voted on by the whole country, which is what Spain did to Catalonia?

After the shitshow in Khatumo Somaliland will have to do a lot of work to redeem itself before Somalia stabilizes, maybe even peruse an alternative to being a successor state to the short-lived State of Somaliland since almost all Dhulbahante are gone and likely never returning. Maybe even a flag & name change as well to boot.


Hypothetically nothing could stop Xamar from doing that but it will lead to more messy conflict in the future. The bulk of Isaaq and Samaroon in awdal have grown up with nothing but Somaliland. Even though its not a recognized country to most of us born post 1991 its our country

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Why did you post your face?

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Why should Somalia recognise Somaliland if no country wants to? 33 years and no nation on earth recognised Somaliland while Somalia remained lawless. Ethiopia has promised to consider recognition in exchange for basically annexing prime sea access.

If it genuinely came between the two, Somaliland will get recognised ASAP but that isn't the issue.



Puntland is also the successor of a pre-colonial state, namely the Majeerteen sultanate, which had international recognition, clearly demarcated borders, a capital and a military.

What criteria does the 4-day state in Somaliland meet that the Majeerteen sultanate did not?

Somaliland has a legitimate case to be the first state created without permission of the state being broken up. You Italian Somalians have to come to the table with a good offer or accept your fate.

 

[Periplus]

View attachment 332056


View attachment 332055

Somaliland has a legitimate case to be the first state created without permission of the state being broken up. You Italian Somalians have to come to the table with a good offer or accept your fate.

You do know Somalia isn’t the only country in Africa to be comprised of two former colonies that achieved independence at different times.

The AU isn’t about to open a Pandora’s box.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

You do know Somalia isn’t the only country in Africa to be comprised of two former colonies that achieved independence at different times.

The AU isn’t about to open a Pandora’s box.

Administrative regions in Africa in 1960, where only the names have changed:

Bechuanaland Protectorate - became the Republic of Botswana on 30 September 1966.

Ruanda-Urundi - became the two independent states of Rwanda and Burundi.

South West Africa - renamed to Namibia from 12 June 1968.

Southern Rhodesia - the country achieved internationally recognised independence as Zimbabwe in April 1980.

Northern Rhodesia - the country became independent in 1964 as Zambia.

Republic of Upper Volta - On 4 August 1984, it changed its name to Burkina Faso.

Rio Muni, Fernando Po, Annobón (Spanish Guinea) – gains independence as Republic of Equatorial Guinea in 1968.

Dahomey - In 1960, Dahomey gained full independence from France as a sovereign state Benin.

Some border changes:

Tanganyika & Zanizibar - Both achieve independence seperately and form a Union to create Tanzania.

Mali Federation - The Mali Federation was a federation in West Africa linking the French colonies of Senegal and the Sudanese Republic (or French Sudan) for two months in 1960. It was founded on 4 April 1959 as a territory with self-rule within the French Community and became independent after negotiations with France on 20 June 1960. Although the Mali Federation existed in name only in Bamako for another month, France and most other nations recognized the two colonies as separate independent countries on 12 September 1960.

Western Sahara -

British Cameroons (BR Cameroons) - the major question was whether to remain with Nigeria or to unite with the newly independent Republic of Cameroon. In a UN-supervised plebiscite in February 1961, the south decided to unite with the former French Cameroun, creating the Federal Republic of Cameroon. The north voted to join the Federation of Nigeria.

----

British Cameroons might be the only close case but even then they didn't achieve independence, they were given a vote by the British on which country to join (Nigeria or Cameroon).

That's why the AU fact finding mission came to the conclusion:

---------------------------
In conclusion: Italian Somaliland tried to absorb and digest British Somaliland but it didn't work.