Musa gives Ethiopia a port and a military base on the Gulf of Aden. It's over

Itsnotthateasy

Itsnotthateasy

Warzio7 said:
They believe it's their right to rule over us. They don't see us as equals even in their 3 decade failed/fragile position. 100% they would renege on any deal. Muse and all Somalilanders know this. The MOU just angers them only because, their original plan of dismantling Somaliland peacefully, militarily, or via creating internal clan conflict has failed. Them being concerned about Ethiopia taking over Somali territory is just a smoke screen. If they had to choose between recognizing Somaliland within its 1960 borders or Ethiopia taking all Somali territory entirely, they'd choose the later.
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Yeah they are not fussed about Ethiopia, it's just politics.
They are going to seethe and wait for an opening.
The problem they have is that they can't scam their way to unity in the south. Somalinimo got played out and now the Hawiye are stuck trying to sneak up on Puntland, SWS etc but it will take them a hundred years at the rate they are going. They are facing too much resistance.

Good riddance to a cursed people.
 
S

Sup

Anti Qabilist - Somali Patriot
Warzio7 said:
They believe it's their right to rule over us. They don't see us as equals even in their 3 decade failed/fragile position. 100% they would renege on any deal. Muse and all Somalilanders know this. The MOU just angers them only because, their original plan of dismantling Somaliland peacefully, militarily, or via creating internal clan conflict has failed. Them being concerned about Ethiopia taking over Somali territory is just a smoke screen. If they had to choose between recognizing Somaliland within its 1960 borders or Ethiopia taking all Somali territory entirely, they'd choose the later.
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“Latter” but do go on, your nonsensical rambling is quite entertaining to listen too.


The Boys Coffee GIF by Amazon Prime Video
 
S

Sup

Anti Qabilist - Somali Patriot
Itsnotthateasy said:
Was a serious question? Hawiye are slow and ineffective. Not a ruling class. The IC is getting bored of watching you fail.
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Cool story bro,

I’d be more worried about been put back in chains if I was you 😂

Pretending to be Somali, what a pathetic existence 😂
 
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Aseer

Aseer

A man without a 🐫 won't be praised in afterlife
VIP
Warzio7 said:
They believe it's their right to rule over us. They don't see us as equals even in their 3 decade failed/fragile position. 100% they would renege on any deal. Muse and all Somalilanders know this. The MOU just angers them only because, their original plan of dismantling Somaliland peacefully, militarily, or via creating internal clan conflict has failed. Them being concerned about Ethiopia taking over Somali territory is just a smoke screen. If they had to choose between recognizing Somaliland within its 1960 borders or Ethiopia taking all Somali territory entirely, they'd choose the later.
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idrc what you were just saying but you know 100% that statement isnt true mate.
 
R

Rabiic

Thegoodshepherd said:
Puntland can sign any deal with Ethiopia because we don’t question the territorial integrity of Somalia. Puntland will never offer to lease to Ethiopia a naval base. Ethiopian soldiers stationed in Somalia will leave the day the FGS tells them to leave, they are not a threat to the territorial integrity of Somalia.

What the iidoor state is proposing is a permanent lease (a la Guantanamo) of 400 sq km of coastal land to Ethiopia for a military base. This is an existential threat to the Somali state. The main geostrategic advantage Somalia has had against Ethiopia is that it was unable to blockade our ports. We could be at war with Ethiopia and carry on trade and import weapons and ammunition. If Ethiopia has a navy, Somalia will be totally vulnerable to Ethiopian coercion.
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The question is what has forced this situation?

If Ethiopia gaining a permanent foothold on the coast is such a bad outcome for Somalia, why not choose the lesser of two evils and recognise Somaliland?

The fact that Somalia is ignoring such an obvious solution and pushing forward with irresponsible brinkmanship will ensure the MOU goes through.

Ethiopia will gain a military base and Somaliland will get recognition. Somalia recognising Somaliland is such an obvious solution, the fact that they're wilfully choosing not to do it to block Ethiopia sea access indicates Somalians are more willing to accept Ethiopia with sea access than a recognised Somaliland.

Somaliland and Puntland are not the same, Somaliland is one half of the two states that joined to form the Somali republic, Puntland is a region within Somalia.
 
Z

Zak12

Rabiic said:
The fact that Somalia is ignoring such an obvious solution
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Why would Somalia allow itself to lose 27% of its territory? What guarantee is there that Somaliland wouldn't continue working with Ethiopia anyways since they aren't suddenly going to be friends with Somalia just because they get recognized? Look at Djibouti, do they care for Somalia? No. Somaliland will be yet another country that will benefit off of Somalia's instability so recognizing them is akin to shooting yourself in the foot with no way to reverse it.

Ethiopia won't be getting a naval base, that much is clear. No only will it be costly, but dissent in Awdal might turn into full blown conflict due to strongly opposing Ethiopian presence and then it will be delayed even further. More importantly, Somalia has recently given Turkey carte blanche to operate in their seas and Turkish vessels will soon be near Somaliland and neither they or Ethiopia can do a thing to stop it because Somaliland doesn't have its own EEZ. The MOU is a foolhardy plan that was never going to be successful. It was always just a distraction for Abiy to turn attention away from internal problems.
 
Itsnotthateasy

Itsnotthateasy

Zak12 said:
Why would Somalia allow itself to lose 27% of its territory? What guarantee is there that Somaliland wouldn't continue working with Ethiopia anyways since they aren't suddenly going to be friends with Somalia just because they get recognized? Look at Djibouti, do they care for Somalia? No. Somaliland will be yet another country that will benefit off of Somalia's instability so recognizing them is akin to shooting yourself in the foot with no way to reverse it.

Ethiopia won't be getting a naval base, that much is clear. No only will it be costly, but dissent in Awdal might turn into full blown conflict due to strongly opposing Ethiopian presence and then it will be delayed even further. More importantly, Somalia has recently given Turkey carte blanche to operate in their seas and Turkish vessels will soon be near Somaliland and neither they or Ethiopia can do a thing to stop it because Somaliland doesn't have its own EEZ. The MOU is a foolhardy plan that was never going to be successful. It was always just a distraction for Abiy to turn attention away from internal problems.
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www.sam.gov.tr

Türkiye as a Mediator between Somalia and Ethiopia

www.sam.gov.tr
Published April 2 2024

Center for Strategic Research of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Türkiye (SAM) is a think-tank and a research center which is chartered by law and has been active since May 1995. SAM was established as a consultative body to provide Turkish Foreign Policy decision makers with scholarly and scientific assessments of relevant issues, and reviews Turkish foreign policy with a futuristic perspective.


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Turkey isn't going to chimp out for you. They see this as a dispute between a regional government and the Federal government. If they attempt to enter Somaliland's waters they will be told no and they will go back to HSM to resolve the dispute and for them to gain access. They aren't about to start a war over it, because their policy is non-interference in internal affairs.

Turkey and the UAE will calmly go about their interests and stop things from boiling over.

The FGS is totally going to chimp out though and try all sorts of things.
 
Itsnotthateasy

Itsnotthateasy

Zak12 said:
They don't care about Somaliland lmao. Its a federal state with zero power and influence
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Turkey knows the situation well and they will be denied access and it's as simple as that. If you think they are getting involved in an African civil war you are pretty stupid. This situation has to be resolved politically. If Somalia wants to resolve it militarily it's going to have to do it by itself.
 
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