Potential peace talk between fgs and shabaab in Doha hosted by Turkey & Norway

[Hilmaam]

No outsider will save Somalis in south, they have to do it themselves. Address clan grievances, align on land ownership, and ensure courts are fair. Al shabab is an idea that draws certain clans and village support. West and African troop’s just create more sympathizers.

Somalia faces Afghanistan moment, but US General says its people can prevent it

The transition from AU peacekeepers mission to use of local forces is now seen as moving from liberation to stabilisation.

nation.africa

 

[X29]

The negotiations will go on for many months with many deals being made. The end goal is shabaab leaving Somalia completely and FGS taking control over the rest of Somalia. Isis in Somalia is light work.



USA was never serious about it.

With the peace negotiations I'm guessi g the foreign troops definitely will be leaving

 

[World]

ISIS held a third of Syria and little less than half of Iraq. The air strikes from US and the Russians in Syria reflected that. At their peak, they were over running cities with 2 million people in it. Just their foreign fighters alone is more than Shabab combatants. The scope and size of that organization makes Shabab look like Rhode Island compared to California.

ISIS is a danger to multiple countries in ME while Shabab at best is a nuisance to Kenya.

Dont think the difference is that big. They had like 25k fighters, maybe at their peak controlled 10 million, earned about 1 million a day? Al Shabab are like 8-10k, control about 2.5 million, earn about 300k a day.

At the end of the day they faced like 35k airstrikes from america, and not including the russians as well.

So proportionally i think 4000 airstrikes a year on al shabab would make sense compared to isis. but obviously, theres no problem with the status quo for america as long as al shabab are contained within somalia, and fgs isnt doing anything favours either with their actions and behaviour.

 

[Ozark]

Dont think the difference is that big. They had like 25k fighters, maybe at their peak controlled 10 million, earned about 1 million a day? Al Shabab are like 8-10k, control about 2.5 million, earn about 300k a day.

At the end of the day they faced like 35k airstrikes from america, and not including the russians as well.

So proportionally i think 4000 airstrikes a year on al shabab would make sense compared to isis. but obviously, theres no problem with the status quo for america as long as al shabab are contained within somalia, and fgs isnt doing anything favours either with their actions and behaviour.

Some even say at their peak they had about 200k fighters. In 2015, they had some 50k foreign fighters alone. But manpower aside, I don't think 4k airstrikes from US would be a net positive. It would degrade their capabilities but it would raze entire villages to the ground which then would foster more radicals to join their cause. And it would also make them go more underground and I expect suicide bombings to go up in the capital and everywhere else. Counter insurgency should come out of Somalia itself. I agree that the status quo is the way it is because Shabab is contained within Somalia. It gives Ethiopia the perfect cover to have their armies in the South.

 

[World]

Some even say at their peak they had about 200k fighters. In 2015, they had some 50k foreign fighters alone. But manpower aside, I don't think 4k airstrikes from US would be a net positive. It would degrade their capabilities but it would raze entire villages to the ground which then would foster more radicals to join their cause. And it would also make them go more underground and I expect suicide bombings to go up in the capital and everywhere else. Counter insurgency should come out of Somalia itself. I agree that the status quo is the way it is because Shabab is contained within Somalia. It gives Ethiopia the perfect cover to have their armies in the South.

I only really take CIA estimates seriously tbh, who say between 25-30k.

In regards to airstrikes, i support it but only if the army fighting al shabab is not qabilist, and do not discriminate against disfranchised clans. Fostering more radicals wouldnt really happen, they already evacuate and leave their own homes following al shabab and the fgs just enter empty cities once liberated. Sadly, they already are far too gone and their clans are pro-al shabab. Create a refugee camp for al shabab, just like how ISIS got their own 70,000 refugee camp called al-hawl in syria.

Focus should be on military victory, its not like they can become more radical at this point. If they want to abandon al shabab, then they should be welcomed back and they shouldnt feel like their clan's only choice is al shabab. There should be no reason Al Shabab exist today east of the shabelle river when it's so easy to defeat them even under this weak government.

 

[Hilmaam]

 

[X29]

What does this mean for Somaliland ?

 

[reer burco]

Do you know if there's any truth to what this guy is saying?

x.com

x.com

 

[Hilmaam]

Do you know if there's any truth to what this guy is saying?

x.com

x.com

i think he made it up in my opinion. he has no sources for the names and numbers he is throwing around

 

[Hilmaam]

What does this mean for Somaliland ?

Muse Bixi upset about list below. he lied when he said terrorism was left off national security threats. But it is true separatism was called out. FGS is now making it a priority to put and end to somaliland ambitions not clear what those steps are to end this threat

 

[reer burco]

i think he made it up in my opinion. he has no sources for the names and numbers he is throwing around

Got it. It got alot of views and he has a large following so I thought he had inside info.

 

[Hilmaam]

Got it. It got alot of views and he has a large following so I thought he had inside info.

These talks rumours gaining alot of steam. I wouldn't be suprised if al shabab has a press release soon on what they want or if talks really happening

 

[World]

These talks rumours gaining alot of steam. I wouldn't be suprised if al shabab has a press release soon on what they want or if talks really happening

Al Shabab are like ISIS bro, they would make takfir on taliban for trying to integrate into the international system. These people cant be negotiated with, due to their beliefs. Loyal soldiers to Al Qaeda, determined to conquer the world, and pray salah in Alaska. They've built a Swahili and Oromo branch of Al Shabab, to expand into these regions as well.

 

[Jungle]

You have no evidence that shabaab is attacking you from Murusade dhul. I have evidence lakin of you insulting my people. This was your 1st post on this thread. Furthermore I have seen you brand my people as shabaab several times on different threads but I ignored it. If a brother from Borama Awdal called me a terroirst I would understand but you as an Abgaal have no right to speak on this. Your people are in bed with shabaab. Somaliweyne knows this so no need to reply to me.

Abgaal take more casualties than any other clan when it comes to khawaarij and you want to tell me we are in bed with them? You just say anything tbh somaliweyne knows you are shabab sxb your khawaarij jaajuus get executed all the way up to Galkacyo

Nobody can dispute that all khawaarij bases are murusade land alot of your tuulos officially come under ceeldheer district.

Your people are 100% khawaarij sympathisers. Ask anybody in Xamar where do you think there are shabab they will say Dayniile oo allaha igu og runta waa qaraar tahay eboow

 

[Step a side]

Abgaal take more casualties than any other clan when it comes to khawaarij and you want to tell me we are in bed with them? You just say anything tbh somaliweyne knows you are shabab sxb your khawaarij jaajuus get executed all the way up to Galkacyo

Nobody can dispute that all khawaarij bases are murusade land alot of your tuulos officially come under ceeldheer district.

Your people are 100% khawaarij sympathisers. Ask anybody in Xamar where do you think there are shabab they will say Dayniile oo allaha igu og runta waa qaraar tahay eboow

Haye haye what ever makes you happy saxib. Somaliweyne knows about Hiiraab and shabaab’s relationships

 

[Step a side]

@Jungle

This guy is waceysla abgaal exposing your president

 

[Jungle]

@Jungle

This guy is waceysla abgaal exposing your president

There is so many of us eboow we allow opposing views. You see Sharif as opposition chief and with 14 candidates last time we have many politicians in the pipeline unlike you.

The man as my pfp will become president before any murusade

 

[Step a side]

There is so many of us eboow we allow opposing views. You see Sharif as opposition chief and with 14 candidates last time we have many politicians in the pipeline unlike you.

The man as my pfp will become president before any murusade

Kkk your insecurities are showing. I love how you switched the topic from “shabaab” to”elections”. Could it be because you’re frightened about Kheyre maybe?

Tbh I don’t even know what “shareef” means. You’re the only one that brought him up

 

[Jungle]

Kkk your insecurities are showing. I love how you switched the topic from “shabaab” to”elections”. Could it be because you’re frightened about Kheyre maybe?

Tbh I don’t even know what “shareef” means. You’re the only one that brought him up

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[Step a side]

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