Recognition isn't free. Until Somaliland has something of value to offer, they will always play second fiddle to Somalia.
Somalia Says No To Continued Ethiopian Presence Past 2024 And Quint Partners Concur
- Thread starter IKHALIIL
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The problem is your value offering is better right now. You are offering to fight terrorism and we don't have the same problem. You offer is unless you give us what we want we won't fight and that's a good offer but only because of total failure of governance and statebuilding. It's like failing upwards. You failed your ways into relevance and influence lol.
Somalia's offer is maritime trade and massive reserves of oil. What does Somaliland have?
You gotta stop with this governance and statebuilding cope. Current Somali government has only been around for 12 years. What has Somaliland accomplished in 30 years?
No countries care about the oil or the maritime trade. They didn't care in the nineties they don't care now. Somalia was off the radar until the early 2000s and only came back on it for one reason. You try the false arguemnt that Somalia has oil that's why Somaliland isnt' recognized but really you are just leveraging your insecurity which is only good as long as people are willing to buy into it or until they look for other solutions.
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Why is fgs negotiating its borders. Ethiopia should not be allowed to stay mou or no mou. Port deal in somaliland is nothing compared to being occupied in south
Because of the civil war you dolt. Companies like Shell and Exxon were already making deals with Somalia before 91 but the civil war halted any progress on that front.
Then explain why you think Somaliland hasn't been recognized for so long now.
There is no morality involved in geopolitics, you are naive. The U.S. doesn't help Somalia out of the kindness of their hearts, they help them to suit their interests. You are clueless about geopolitics hence why you brush off important realities like oil and maritime trade and make up fantasies of "good" people helping Somalia. Where were the good people helping Somalia during the late 90s? Or during Somalia's famine?
You are leveraging insecuity and pretending that it's the oil or the population we all know thats not the case. Somalia was re-engaged under the war on terror otherwise it wouldn't have happened.
Somalia is like a guy with bad gas being bribed to eat a good diet and not fart around others. Meanwhile hes' telling everyone people are around him because of his great personality. Not really you just have a bad problem that the rest of world has to deal with. Stop farting on the world and the world will just treat like any other third world country and you won't have the US and others giving a shit about your territorial integrity or some African border. They break borders in Europe when it suits them.
Attention on Somalia was brought back again because of the rise of the ICU. No one wanted an Islamic power ruling a country during the peak of the war on terrror and things continue on from there until the formation of the FGS. Before ICU America didn't care about Somalia's dysfunction. In fact, they contributed to it as seen with their support of the warlords.
>food analogy
Typical.
As does Libya, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Myanmar ect. Keep on believing Somalia is uniquely bad, not even in the top 10 poorest countries anymore.
Somalia is at risk of famine and displacement every year, infested with terrorist snd the elites in Mogadishu are concerned about territorities in Ethiopia and Kenya and holding Somaliland, levaraging their shitty situation (due to poor/lack of governance) to demand territory to govern, the whole situation is actually completely illogical. The west is holding this upside down situation together and you know they can't do it forever. Reality will return we will just wait for that time.
they have more right to be a country than somaliland, they are more advantageous to the west than you will ever be
The entire region is always at risk of famine and displacement. Again, stop pretending Somalia is unique in this regard. And yes, the government has the right to protect its territory. You don't bargain with your own possessions after all and Somaliland is officially a federal state of Somalia. No amount of pretending will change that reality.
Somalia wasn't part of the MoU, Somalia wasn't invited. Somalia isn't bargaining anything. The West is holding your interests together for you (and stopping others from pursuing theirs) because of the quid pro quo you have with them as long as that remains you can maintain the haughty demeanour but it's not grounded in anything sustainable. The second you win the war (extremely unlikely) your bargain collapses and it could collapse at any time if the west withdraws.
You entire political opinion is grounded in distorting reality
Rebellious teenagers are free to act on their own but that doesn't mean their parents won't discipline them.
Correct. In the future, Somalia will become an important partner for America in the Indian Ocean and Red Sea and another avenue for oil deals hence why they are prepping Somalia right now. Both parties win. Too bad Somaliland is left out of all this.
Lol, Somalia isn't doing anything. US is doing the ground work saying don't recognize Somaliland. You are literally powerless.
I'm done talking, you have such a deranged view of the situation there's no use in discussion. The US is doing no exploration in Somalia, there is plenty of oil in the world. Remmeber the ninties, its' nothing important.
But then again you been deny words in black and white lol and the official sources. You will be the last to get the picture.
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Oh? So I guess all those flight bans, defense pacts, and weapon transportations never actually happened then. What kind of khat plants do they grow in Somaliland to cause this level of cognitive dissonance?
Its not illegal to recognize other countries you know. No one wants to because Somaliland has literally nothing to offer. No one wants to jeopardize their relationship with Somalia. That is how langaab and weak you are.
Of course you are since you failed to even answer many of my questions, have an extremely naive view of geopolitics ("good" people lmao) and now thinks Somalia has stood around doing nothing. When those Egyptian boots hit the ground in Somalia, I'll say told you so.
No such thing as too much oil. What a child you are, no one would in this world would reject easy oil, especially when the country in question potentially has the 18th largest reserves in the world. Pure doqonimo from you but that is to be expected.
Yeah and none of that stopped the MoU, it's the US and their influence really behind the scenes creating roadblocks.
Again its' the US putting the roadblocks on the situation, you are not a trading partner of anyone, you've never produced oil, have no infrastrucutre that's relevant to anyone just a terrible security issue that needs to be contained.
Anyway i'm not bothering with this conversation becasue you are reality challenged. I should have stopped when you tried to quote an article as more legit than the actual AU document it was referencing, that's when you were shown to be mentally cooked. Anyway I'm out.
Nice goalpost shift. You claimed Somalia isn't doing anything and I proved you wrong. Stopping the MoU takes time but Somalia's actions are already slowing it down.
No they aren't. Give me proof of this. Nothing is stopping anyone from recognizing Somaliland. Hell, that is what Ethiopia reportedly is planning to do. Are you actually arguing the MoU won't happen because America will stop it lmao.
Hop off my dick then, you already this before.
Which didn't refute my point of Egypt's weapon transportation being direct evidence of their future troop contribution. You can cope all you want but so far only Egypt and Djibouti has been confirmed to be contributing troops. Your precious Ethiopia is nowhere in sight.
Damn I love running circles around you, so easy to make you concede lol
Somalia is not Afghanistan because of its geostrategic location. If the west were to abandon Somalia, China would move in. The West is willing to pay ~$1.5 billion each year to keep piracy & terrorism down, starvation away and China out. Afghanistan is a landlocked Central Asian country surrounding by more powerful states.
Somalia in 2024 is better than it was in 2014, and Somalia in 2014 was better than Somalia in 2004. There has a been gradual upward trend in Somalia and that makes secessionists like our friend @Itsnotthateasy very nervous.
The formation of SSC-Khatumo has made them even more nervous. Time is not their friend, that is why they are willing to give up 400 sq km of land to Ethiopia in perpetuity, this is nearly 2x the size of Banaadir, absolute desperation. Going forward, Isaaq will be lucky if they can hold onto the land they currently have given Harti Woqoyi population growth.
@Zak12 Ethiopian security analysts also think it is unlikely that Ethiopia will be participating in AUSSOM.
AUSSOM is meant to be a long-term mission, the real replacement for AMISOM. It is a much more potent force legally speaking. Highly unlikely that Ethiopia will be allowed to participate given Somali objections and Ethiopia's refusal to admit that the MOU is dead and buried.
https://issafrica.org/iss-today/new-au-mission-for-somalia-old-problems-fresh-solutions
AUSSOM is meant to be a long-term mission, the real replacement for AMISOM. It is a much more potent force legally speaking. Highly unlikely that Ethiopia will be allowed to participate given Somali objections and Ethiopia's refusal to admit that the MOU is dead and buried.
The new mission differs from its predecessors in its mandate and operational modalities. Due to Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Ethiopia probably won’t contribute troops, while Egypt likely will.
Previous missions have struggled with multiple, sometimes conflicting, roles and expectations. Unlike them, AUSSOM will have a more defined supportive role, with more pronounced functions for the Somali Security Forces.
In contrast to ATMIS, AUSSOM should have a more realistic, longer time frame. ATMIS was given under three years to degrade al-Shabaab by supporting offensive military operations and building capacity in the Somali Security Forces. AUSSOM’s priority will be to bolster operations of the Somali Security Forces and carry out capacity building. Unlike earlier missions, it has an explicit mandate to protect civilians under immediate threat of physical violence. AUSSOM will have five years to complete its work (2025-29).
https://issafrica.org/iss-today/new-au-mission-for-somalia-old-problems-fresh-solutions
Hopefully Ethiopia do not retract from MOU by December 31st. All their troops should leave the country by the end of the year if Somalia wants any chance on improving.
