2023 FGS Budget Review

[World]

Probably indicates clear theft. Somalia doesn't really even have armed forces anymore, it uses macawiisely to fight shabab

Unserious people

 

[TheLand]

probably have to be somewhat accurate it’s very small budget so not that hard to track. stuff probably gets stolen when contracts gets awarded to shady companies that give politicians money in back room deals by fudging statement papers

@Hilmaam this is what i'm talking about. AAW directly accusing government accounting to be 'inaccurate' lol. He says below in the part I highlighted the sale of public lands wasn't in the budget put in front of parliament neither in income or expenditures. He would know too as an MP because he has access to the reports

 

[Hilmaam]

 

[Hilmaam]

Jubbaland previous aid pages shows they getting 39 million in aid next year puntland meanwhile 16 million. Stark difference it used to be opposite for long time since these other manmuls were paper states who couldn’t utilize funds

 

[TheLand]

Jubbaland previous aid pages shows they getting 39 million in aid next year puntland meanwhile 16 million. Stark difference it used to be opposite for long time since these other manmuls were paper states who couldn’t utilize funds

very interesting, link to source?

 

[Hilmaam]

Here is puntland expected budget. The way I read it 145 million is budget for year. 113M fixed costs. 32M is projects. The 230M off budget is NGOs, UN, and budget support for local cities its marked as off budget so guessing it doesn't go through ministry of finance. Which makes sense as somalia gets huge money from UN and NGOs which isnt tracked anywhere else for other FMS and FGS

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Here is puntland budget 2024. The actual budget was 145 million its number used by finance report

Q2-2024 Revenue Monthly Trend Report – Puntaland Ministry of Finance

mof.pl.so

 

[Hilmaam]

very interesting, link to source?

This is for 2025 planning

Dam wonder why west allowing this doesnt seem fair to politicize aid

View attachment 346252

 

[Hilmaam]

Historical

 

[TheLand]

This thread should be a sticky. Much more valuable than most of the drivel threads in this section.

 

[GN108036]

When looking at the last few annual budgets, it's evident that administrative costs are rising along side domestic revenue. I just hope the cost go into capacity building and flatten out in the coming budgets. Otherwise it will be clear as day curuption.

 

[Hilmaam]

From Chat GPT:

Countries with fragile governments, like Somalia, often have per capita government spending between $200 to $500 per person annually. Given that Somalia's population is around 17 million people, a rough estimate would be a minimum budget of $3.4 billion to $8.5 billion annually for basic government functioning.

FGS is proposing 1.4 billion budget not even half of minumum required for fragile states. Of course it’s not hardline but makes sense. 1.4 billion devided by 17 million is 82 per person what services can be provided for so little. If you use the 429 million domestic revenue it drops to 25 bucks

 

[TheLand]

From Chat GPT:

Countries with fragile governments, like Somalia, often have per capita government spending between $200 to $500 per person annually. Given that Somalia's population is around 17 million people, a rough estimate would be a minimum budget of $3.4 billion to $8.5 billion annually for basic government functioning.

FGS is proposing 1.4 billion budget not even half of minumum required for fragile states. Of course it’s not hardline but makes sense. 1.4 billion devided by 17 million is 82 per person what services can be provided for so little. If you use the 429 million domestic revenue it drops to 25 bucks

I think 17 mill is a clear and massive overstatement for people within Somalia proper though. If you combine Somalis all over the globe then 17 million makes more sense. Either way, I agree the budget is way too small but makes sense since they are basically only in 1 place.

 

[Hilmaam]

I think 17 mill is a clear and massive overstatement for people within Somalia proper though. If you combine Somalis all over the globe then 17 million makes more sense. Either way, I agree the budget is way too small but makes sense since they are basically only in 1 place.

I don’t we that low but it’s possible. Definitely a lot of incentives to exaggerate numbers to get more aid

 

[GN108036]

From Chat GPT:

Countries with fragile governments, like Somalia, often have per capita government spending between $200 to $500 per person annually. Given that Somalia's population is around 17 million people, a rough estimate would be a minimum budget of $3.4 billion to $8.5 billion annually for basic government functioning.

FGS is proposing 1.4 billion budget not even half of minumum required for fragile states. Of course it’s not hardline but makes sense. 1.4 billion devided by 17 million is 82 per person what services can be provided for so little. If you use the 429 million domestic revenue it drops to 25 bucks

Yeah FGS revenue to GDP ratio (3%) is abysmal, even compared to fragile states. What do you guys think causes this? Lack of civiic buy in? Over taxing by shabaab? Corruption?

For context other frigile states are about 15% and 40% for stable countries.

Since the FGS only taxes Mogadishu + a few other fees ( $30m air transit) we could recalibrate according to Mogadishu GDP.

I'll say this though, people arren't paying their fair share. Whole world was going mad over a 5% VAT that isn't even through the whole supply chain.

Also, curuption is not an excuse.

 

[Hilmaam]

Yeah FGS revenue to GDP ratio (3%) is abysmal, even compared to fragile states. What do u think is the cause? Lack of civiic buy in? Over taxing by shabaab? Corruption?

For context other frigile states are about 15% and 40% for stable countries.

Since the FGS only taxes Mogadishu + a few other fees ( $30m air transit) we could recalibrate according to Mogadishu GDP.

I'll say this though, people arren't paying their fair share. Whole world was going mad over a 5% VAT that isn't even through the whole supply chain.

Also, curuption is not an excuse.

I think we have very weak economy that is heavily aid dependent. The income tax collected is from alot of govt workers in xamar whose salaries paid for using westerns aid its circular money that stays in city.

If i was in charge i would probably focus less on income tax and more tariffs right at ports. tax everything coming it at higher rates. Let business owners decide whether to asborb cost, pass it on, or find local supplier. That way govt can spend less time chasing little money from sales tax. Country flooded with goods from abroad bought using money sent from west. We have no local real economy at home and our local farmers and entrepreneurs undercut by cheap stuff from dubai and china.

We also not properly utilzing few natural resource we have like fishing Hamza stated whil eback goal is to get 50% of govt revenue from ocean. Thats 200 million added to govt.

I think our economy to weak to charge income or business taxes. Charge small taxes for licenses and registrations and focus on developing economy we should also fire majority of bueracrats but and MPs but doubt it happens because of 4.5.

Went bit long but in nut shell somalia economy very weak with alot of aid and remittance hidding alot of issues all over country. Govt reflection of this little economic activity

Govt goal is to get 50% of revenue from fisheries

Somalia launches fisheries week to help reap investments in blue economy

Somalia launches fisheries week to help reap investments in blue economy-

english.news.cn

Presentation this week on fishing economy . Stating it’s worth 1.6 billion dollars a year this is without depleting ocean and fishing sustainable. This number would give govt 200 million in revenue a year

 

[Nin123]

Yeah FGS revenue to GDP ratio (3%) is abysmal, even compared to fragile states. What do you guys think causes this? Lack of civiic buy in? Over taxing by shabaab? Corruption?

For context other frigile states are about 15% and 40% for stable countries.

Since the FGS only taxes Mogadishu + a few other fees ( $30m air transit) we could recalibrate according to Mogadishu GDP.

I'll say this though, people arren't paying their fair share. Whole world was going mad over a 5% VAT that isn't even through the whole supply chain.

Also, curuption is not an excuse.

Will technically Somalia government came to existence in 2012 no more than decade. This will explain the low numbers it’s basically a new country.

 

[Nin123]

I think we have very weak economy that is heavily aid dependent. The income tax collected is from alot of govt workers in xamar whose salaries paid for using westerns aid its circular money that stays in city.

If i was in charge i would probably focus less on income tax and more tariffs right at ports. tax everything coming it at higher rates. Let business owners decide whether to asborb cost, pass it on, or find local supplier. That way govt can spend less time chasing little money from sales tax. Country flooded with goods from abroad bought using money sent from west. We have no local real economy at home and our local farmers and entrepreneurs undercut by cheap stuff from dubai and china.

We also not properly utilzing few natural resource we have like fishing Hamza stated whil eback goal is to get 50% of govt revenue from ocean. Thats 200 million added to govt.

I think our economy to weak to charge income or business taxes. Charge small taxes for licenses and registrations and focus on developing economy we should also fire majority of bueracrats but and MPs but doubt it happens because of 4.5.

Went bit long but in nut shell somalia economy very weak with alot of aid and remittance hidding alot of issues all over country. Govt reflection of this little economic activity

You gotta view Somalia as new fresh country that is no more than decade old.

 

[Nin123]

You gotta view Somalia as new fresh country that is no more than decade old.

So if we use this view we will see that Somalia improved from 2012 by a lot.

 

[Hilmaam]

You gotta view Somalia as new fresh country that is no more than decade old.

Maybe but every time we have civil war can’t say we get new start . We can’t treat Somalis like special ed. we know what normal looks like and Somalia is not it we got long way to go and have to get there much faster . Somalis needs hardcore govt fight foreign influence, drugs like khat, and stop import dumping into country , and ensure people get safety and justice

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Maybe but every time we have civil war can’t say we get new start . We can’t treat Somalis like special ed. we know what normal looks like and Somalia is not it we got long way to go and have to get there much faster . Somalis needs hardcore govt fight foreign influence, drugs like khat, and stop import dumping into country , and ensure people get safety and justice

If the federal gov remains this incompetent for another decade, it will probably be taken off of life support.

Of the 39 populations that FSNAU (FAO Somalia) keeps track of, 28 have levels of GAM (Global Acute Malnutrition) above 10%, the emergency level. This has remained consistant over the years since 2012. If after 12 years and billions in aid, the FGS remains unable to bring child malnutrition down from emergency levels, what hope is there?

Banaadir's IDP malnutrition and death rate figures are ridiculous. People are dying from hunger 5 km from Villa Somalia.