OLF, and Fano have very little power and have no key cities, they are fighting eachother at the Amahra, Sudan, Oromia border as of now. the OLF is based on religion, 40 years ago why were 100 percent muslim, now they are 90 percent christian, and are basically trying to liberate conquerer Oromia especially the cities of Negelle, Dire Dawa, and Addisababa, which is completely irrelevant for oromos and Amharas to forget, since they are doing it now. on top of that they push a Protestant Agenda.
Fano are a racist Amhara supremacist group that aim to conquerer Ethiopia and push an orthodox christianity agenda this is where the two clash. whilst Abiy is planning an invasion of Eritrea.
Ilyasu was a Muslim in favor of Somalis we even accommodated him graciously in Harar.The Ethiopian Emperor Log Iyasu said to us, “I will not rest until my horses drink from the Sea.”
Greater Oroamia is a realityView attachment 303618
Despite this, he said this, perhaps he was aiming to include the Somalis in the coastIlyasu was a Muslim in favor of Somalis we even accommodated him graciously in Harar.
He could be referring to Eritrea. Nevertheless Ethiopian Muslims are actually good people. Very unique with a rich history. I see absolutely no problems in collaboration with them in the dominance of the Nazara nations.Despite this, he said this, perhaps he was aiming to include the Somalis in the coast
the Somali region is a region where the Somali people outnumber and dominate other ethnicities (even though some aren't), the oromia region is where the Oromo people outnumber and dominate the other ethnicity, the Oromo outnumber the somali 48-13 in dire dawa (not including the Gurgura since after 1991 they were not counted as somalis. the OLF, andWhat do you mean, OLF are trying to liberate Oromia cities like Dire Dawa? First of all DD isn't part of Oromia, but is it part of their agenda to take over that region?![]()
the Somali region is a region where the Somali people outnumber and dominate other ethnicities (even though some aren't)
the oromia region is where the Oromo people outnumber and dominate the other ethnicity, the Oromo outnumber the somali 48-13 in dire dawa (not including the Gurgura since after 1991 they were not counted as somalis. the OLF, and
What are the actual numbers of people who identify as somali in the city and who settles the surrounding areas ?What other ethnicities? It's only ethnic Somalis that live in the Somali region. Maybe a percentage or two of foreigners. And most of them being recent settlers.
You got the wrong figures on the ethnicities of DD. Ethiopian census varies in that region, sometimes it's based on ethnicity and other times language.
Also, there's a reason as to why Dir Dhaba was never included in Oromia. If Oromos were majority, it would've occurred back in the 90s. But you guys are not. And if OLF dares to capture DD, it will lead to a war in the region. Mark my words.
What are the actual numbers of people who identify as somali in the city and who settles the surrounding areas ?
They already speak oromo as their mother tongueTbh, I'm not sure what the actual figures are. There haven't been a census in a long time. Also, a significant of the Somalis in DD are native Oromo speakers and I'm not sure if all of them are regarded as Somalis. I would take Ethiopian census in 'contested regions' like DD with a grain of salt too.
@GaradShabeel
Kabayare’s video makes you question a lot. Are we Somalis prepared if Ethiopia was to invade?
He made some good points. If a war breaks out with a stronger nation, and you don't have military capability or alliance with like-minded countries, you will be on the loser end. The IC will only react with condemnations, and at best with sanctions. Other than this, you have to accept your fate unless you can put up a resistance.
Although Abiy have increased his war rhetorics recently, I don't personally think that Somalia is part of his agenda (for now). But if God forbid, an invasion was imminent, my biggest worry wouldn't be the war itself, but instead how disunited we're amongst ourselves. It's no secret every clan operates independently for their own interests, even when it comes to the collective interest of the nation. This is a textbook definition of our weakness in which dive and conquer tactics can be used for their advantage, and conquer us that way.
With that said, if everyone can put their differences aside and stand firm in defending the territorial integrity of the country, then no doubt, we can sustain for a long time. Unfortunately, given their military superiority, we have to turn to non-conventional warfare to deal with them. But then again, Somalia has been in a state of war for decades, with mostly light weapons available, and thus accustomed us to use whatever little we have to our advantage.
The reality is that Ethiopia already have military presence in Somalia, which makes it less likely for them to 're-start' the war with us again. However, I've always been opposed to using Ethiopians in fighting AS as you don't know what ulterior motives they may have. No one fights for free unless they get something in return. Especially now that Abiy's intentions are clear.
In the end, Ethiopia's weakness it their own internal ethnic conflicts. If a full out war start in Somalia, you only need to empower and reignite civil wars over there and ally with rebels. It will in turn force them into concession and hopefully lead to cessation of hostility on their end.
Great analysis. I personally think it’s easier for Abiy to invade Somaliland then Eritrea. Something is telling me he will invade Somaliland. May Allah make it easy. We have no army. We had enough time to build it but we had dumb leaders lead us. I also believe Somaliland was purposely weakened against SSC so the Ethiopians can steam roll through and take it all.
Without access to the Gulf of Aden Somalia is no more strategic. It’s will just be another useless SSA country.
Nole (the only oromo clan) aren’t even 30 percent of DD. Keep dreaming qotiWhat do you mean, OLF are trying to liberate Oromia cities like Dire Dawa? First of all DD isn't part of Oromia, but is it part of their agenda to take over that region?![]()
this is my theory. Abiy will try bribe the FANO, and OLF just as Barre bribed the Somali Abu, and OLF before, they will take his side and destroy Eritrea after Ethiopia gains aces to Eritrean ports wit U.S support they will become very powerful and will try expand to Sudan since Egypt is there bitter rival they never borderd Abiy will use the Fano, and OLF as foot soldiers into Sudan since they border eachother and the border ports such as suakin, and mainland cities will fall. after Ethiopia rises its peak FANO will merge with Eritrean forces to expand its land, and OLF will merge with TPLF these groups will invade as far as somalia and create there own country 30 percent of ethiopia 20 percent of somalia, 10 percent of Kenya, and thewhole of Djibouti in it
Absolutely their would be war. Dir Dhaba is a major city that we won't give up so easily. No matter who the President, the war drums would be beating. Oromos have already been encroaching on Somali lands in the DDs. Dir dhaba would be the nail in the coffin for an all out war.What other ethnicities? It's only ethnic Somalis that live in the Somali region. Maybe a percentage or two of foreigners. And most of them being recent settlers.
You got the wrong figures on the ethnicities of DD. Ethiopian census varies in that region, sometimes it's based on ethnicity and other times language.
Also, there's a reason as to why Dir Dhaba was never included in Oromia. If Oromos were majority, it would've occurred back in the 90s. But you guys are not. And if OLF dares to capture DD, it will lead to a war in the region. Mark my words.