Musa gives Ethiopia a port and a military base on the Gulf of Aden. It's over

[repo]

I probably need to preface this by stating the fact that the only truly Ethiopianist ethnic groups in Ethiopia are the Amhara and all the small micro groups that cannot hope to fend for themselves without the existence of "Ethiopia". The rest like the Tigrayans (TPLF), Oromos (Prosperity|Poverty Party/Abiy Ahmed) etc are just opportunists looking to enrich themselves. Ethiopia is just a cash cow waiting to be milked.

That being said, a Tigrayan administration (or more specifically a TPLF administration) adds a more dangerous complexity to the Eritrea-Ethiopia feud. The Tigrayans are staunch ethnonationalists. Their plan has always been to stuff their pockets full of cash and develop their kilil and when the time is right: secede and join their "Tigrayan brothers" to the north. To them, Eritrea is simply a Tigrayan state (even though the Kebessa have never identified as Tigrayans in history) where they can simply join at the drop of a hat and supplant Tigrayan hegemony. The issue is that this sentiment is not reciprocated at all. It is very much an unrequited love affair. Eritrean civic nationalism and Tigrayan ethnonationalism are two irreconcilable philosophies. The only way to destroy the former is to tear apart the social fabric in Eritrea that transcends ethnic groups. That's why when Ethiopia was under TPLF administration, they hosted and funded a number of Eritrean ethnic militias (RSADO, DMLEK, SPDM etc). They have been trying to awaken an "Tigrayan ethnic consciousness" within the Tigrinya of Eritrea that simply doesn't exist. It also why during the war in Tigray, TPLF associated media outlets shamelessly purported that the atrocities allegedly committed in Tigray by Eritrean forces were predominantly done by Beni-Amer and Tigre (not to be confused with Tigrayan) soldiers of whom were identified by the tribal scarring on their faces. These bogus allegations were made with the sole purpose of trying to fuel Islamophobia and Tigrinya-chauvinism within Eritrea.

In short: Abiy wants to conquer Eritrea. Tigrayans want to destroy it

What an intriguing and fascinating breakdown.

 

[New World]

I keep hearing about ongoing wars in Ethiopia since the last civil war. How is the situation currently?

are the rebel groups actually causing harm to Abiy's rule?

 

[Pastoralist]

 

[Pastoralist]

Calling on other entities to prevent, “Somali dunida la heshis ah” let’s see how that goes. It’s still my thinking that HSM plans to let this happen

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

If still in doubt as to Habasha's intent, this is very telling.

-------------------
The current administration led by @AbiyAhmedAli
and his Oromo allies have definitively stated their intention to secure a port, either through diplomatic means or force. This pursuit will ignite another war in the horn. What the Horn of Africa desperately needs is peace, not the burden of another conflict ignited by the assertive Oromo regime based in Addis Ababa.

There is a consensus between the TPLF and the Oromo regime in Addis Ababa to cooperatively seek the annexation of the Afar part of Eritrea to Tigray , as well as liberate Tigray from Ethiopia after controlling the Asseb port, while concurrently, the Oromo pushes eastward with conflicts into Somaliland. Their aim is to secure the Zella port before declaring independence.

This expansionist approach of the Oromo led Ethiopia is alarming and could potentially escalate into a full-blown conflict across the Horn. The region's powers should back the efforts of the Amhara to remove Abiy Ahmed from power, fostering peace, economic integration and coexistence throughout the Horn.

 

[Keep it a boqol]

 

[MOEMONEY]

sanctions coming soon for Ethiopia

 

[seldiboy]

Why didn't Tigrayan leaders secede when they were in power? And why did they allow Abiy to come to power?

Tigrayan secession is predicated on joining Eritrea which will never happen (fun fact: the TPLF asked to join the EPLF during the Independence War and was rejected). Otherwise they would be an arid and landlocked state with hostile neighbours.

Even in the recent war, they were fighting for a seat in Arat Kilo, not secession

 

[New World]

How many rebel groups are currently fighting the government of Ethiopia?

 

[Kizaru]

How many rebel groups are currently fighting the government of Ethiopia?

A handful but they are strong in number. A civil war in ethiopia would be catastrophic for somalis. Especially the somali region and our folks in the north and south

 

[Hilmaam]

 

[Abdisamad]

A handful but they are strong in number. A civil war in ethiopia would be catastrophic for somalis. Especially the somali region and our folks in the north and south

How would it be catastrophic for us if they plung into a civil war? Because of refugee influx?

 

[Kizaru]

How would it be catastrophic for us if they plung into a civil war? Because of refugee influx?

yes. 100 million. They would over run our folks in the somali galbeed and probably over run our people in the north and south of the our border. It would be a very wild place. The violence could be something we have never seen. You see how they hate each other. How can somalis stop a 100 mllion population influx. It would probably cripple the countries ethnic population

 

[Abdisamad]

yes. 100 million. They would over run our folks in the somali galbeed and probably over run our people in the north and south of the our border. It would be a very wild place. The violence could be something we have never seen. You see how they hate each other.

Nah sxb, you'll just have to keep your border closed, aren't they armed in galbeed region?

 

[Kizaru]

Nah sxb, you'll just have to keep your border closed, aren't they armed in galbeed region?

true but they arent as equipped as the niggas that are killing each other. 40 million vs 20-30 milion + tigrayans.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

 

[Abdisamad]

true but they arent as equipped as the niggas that are killing each other. 40 million vs 20-30 milion + tigrayans.

I see, but if it's a civil war in Ethiopia I would imagine they would be fighting against each other inside the country why would they go to Somalia? It doesn't make sense sxb. I don't see Sudanis going to Egypt or Ethiopia to continue they fight there.

 

[Abdisamad]

Btw I don't think there are 40 million armed Ethiopians lol.. The millions you see are mostly civilians.

 

[Abdisamad]

Abiye thought if Putin can do it why not me too.. Lemme grap this easy piece of coast while the weak Somalis are squabbling among themselves.

 

[Aiman12]

yes. 100 million. They would over run our folks in the somali galbeed and probably over run our people in the north and south of the our border. It would be a very wild place. The violence could be something we have never seen. You see how they hate each other. How can somalis stop a 100 mllion population influx. It would probably cripple the countries ethnic population

majority would head up north to north africa and to europe, whats left would make their way to kenya and a small minority would try their luck in somalia